On NationalJournal.com's new National Security Expert Blog, defense experts see a wide array of potential crises awaiting Barack Obama. Asked to identify the most dangerous scenarios and advise the new president on how to handle them, they brought up familiar themes: abroad, India-Pakistan tension and Iran; at home, the economy and the inevitability of surprise.
Retired Army Col. Douglas Macgregor warns that the crisis on the Indian subcontinent "could easily become a full-blown war" -- one that could put American forces in Afghanistan at "severe risk" and precipitate a humanitarian disaster that would place heavy demands on the Navy and Air Force.
Hillary Mann Leverett, a Middle East specialist in the last two administrations, warned against more "carrots and sticks" with Iran. "Iran has legitimate security concerns for which it has historically been willing to pay a very high price," she writes, advocating for a strategic rethinking not unlike the first President Bush's stance toward Israeli-Palestinian relations or President Nixon's dealings with China.
Michael P. Jackson, a former Homeland Security official, suggests that the new administration must "prioritize ruthlessly, focus on risk" -- primarily the risk of "attacks against a category of vital infrastructure" and "a large biological attack." He also stresses cohesion among Cabinet departments.
The rough economy could complicate matters. Retired Army Col. Joseph J. Collins says Obama "will likely have enough money to do the right thing in Iraq and Afghanistan for the next few years," but "major systems in development are today all in jeopardy."
In NationalJournal.com's Expert Blogs, insiders in health care, economy, energy, transportation and national security discuss hot policy issues throughout the week. New topics are posted every Monday morning.
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