OPINION

Friday, December 12, 2008 11:45 AM

Insiders, Bloggers Forecast Obama's First Year

After a widely anticipated election comes a high-stakes first year for President-elect Barack Obama. National Journal surveyed Political and Congressional Insiders and top bloggers for a special look at the new administration's risks and opportunities; they see a Washington that's ready to get to work, if not entirely ready to change.

Solid majorities of Democratic and Republican Insiders and right-leaning bloggers say that Obama is more likely to take on too many projects than too few in 2009. "He will have an extended honeymoon; he need not be cautious," said blogger David Gerstman of Soccer Dad. Left-leaning bloggers, by a 3-to-1 margin, worried Obama would be too cautious.

Left-of-center bloggers also saw the least benefit for Obama in compromising with Republicans to move his legislative agenda, though a majority of every group except Republican Insiders said Obama should compromise only as much as necessary to win passage. "If the new president compromises too much, the legislative product will be mush instead of change," said one Democratic Insider. Barbara O'Brien of The Mahablog said securing GOP support would be ideal, but "the last two elections have left Congress with mostly right-wing, radical Republicans... rather than moderate ones."

As for how much Obama will change Washington, "a little" was the top choice in every group. "He has the charisma and intelligence to change it some, but Washington is Washington," said one GOP Insider. John Aravosis of AMERICAblog selected "a lot" but added, "Within reason. You really can't change 4,000 years of civilization."

If Obama needs help from the Democratic base, all four groups agree he is least likely to get it from anti-war activists. Majorities of 54 percent to 80 percent said that relationship would be worse in a year. "Anti-war activists misjudged Obama's national security core from the beginning," Taylor Marsh wrote.

And what of the Republicans as they face a year without the presidency or either house of Congress? Right-leaning bloggers (85 percent) and Insiders (68 percent) say they're better off playing up their differences with Obama. "I see no future for them in abandoning their principles to become Democrat Lite," said Robert Miller of JoshuaPundit. A GOP Insider urged a positive distinction: "Do it with humor, use concrete images, make a reasonable case to voters."

For more opinion, and for results on Washington's partisan divisions, Obama's chances of passing significant legislation in key areas, and prospects for investigation of the Bush administration, click here for Insiders and here for bloggers.