Thursday, November 6, 2008 11:30 AM

Hess & Ignatius: Giving Advice, Making Predictions

The Washington Post's David Ignatius wrote a column today delving into President-elect Obama's transition in the foreign policy realm. He speculates on the advisers Obama may pick and where he stands on Middle East diplomatic issues.

Here are some interesting takes from the piece:

• "Obama wants to pick his foreign policy roster first, and then turn to substance.... Among the big questions are whether to ask Bob Gates to stay on as defense secretary or, if not, whether to appoint a prominent Republican, such as Sen. Richard Lugar or Sen. Chuck Hagel, as secretary of state. Either way, Obama wants a bipartisan team."

• "For national security adviser, Obama is likely to pick a pragmatist."

• "Obama wants to make an early push on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, despite political turmoil in Israel."

• "On Iran, Obama wants to open the door to a process of engagement and dialogue, even though his advisers aren't confident it will succeed."

• "On Iraq and Afghanistan, Obama will listen carefully to advice from Gen. David Petraeus, the Centcom commander, and other military leaders before making decisions."

Stephen Hess also offers "five tips for avoiding political minefields" on the way to Obama's inauguration in a piece also in the Post. Hess is a senior fellow emeritus in governance studies at the Brookings Institution and the author of What Do We Do Now? A Workbook for the President-Elect.

Here they are in a nutshell:

• "Beware of Reorganitus: You are about to be besieged by proposals to reorganize government."

• "About Harboring Loyalists: There are folks who have spent tremendous energy trying to advance your cause and now want jobs. It would be grand if they were all experienced in government management. But take note of the trail left by the friends of Jimmy Carter."

• "Take No for an Answer: You will find no shortage of applicants willing to sacrifice for high-salaried government jobs."

• "Know When to Fold: When a nomination is in trouble, count votes and move quickly if you don't have enough of them."

• "And One More Thing: Here's my last piece of gratuitous advice -- although it will be hotly challenged by Bill Clinton: Never give major public policy responsibility to someone you cannot fire."

National Journal also recently spoke with Hess on the transition.