By MARY GILBERT
The citizens of Togo held a mock election in October to voice their opinion on who should win the U.S. presidential election. Barack Obama garnered 99 percent of the vote. That, says Ambassador David Dunn, reflects the enormous reservoir of goodwill that exists on the African continent as America's first African-American president prepares to take office.
But Dunn and two other Africa experts -- Howard Wolpe, director of the Woodrow Wilson Center's Africa Program, and Nicole Lee, executive director of TransAfrica Forum, an advocacy group -- see the potential for disappointment. Gathered at American University's Kay Spiritual Life Center on Wednesday night, the three talked about the high expectations surrounding Obama's presidency and the constraints he will face in trying to change the way America approaches its Africa policy -- particularly in light of the current economic crisis.
"Time will take its toll" on Obama's popularity on the continent, Dunn predicted. He, like all U.S. presidents, will pursue America's interests abroad, Dunn said, and those do not always coincide with what Africans would like to see from the U.S. Dunn suggested that an early trip to the continent could do a lot to secure the current amicable atmosphere.
All three panelists agreed that with America's economy in turmoil, the new administration will be hard-pressed to increase aid to Africa. Lee spoke of being "disappointed" when, in the Oct. 2 vice presidential debate, Joe Biden acknowledged that the U.S. probably will not meet its goal of doubling development assistance over the next several years. But they also said that the way in which aid money is distributed is also a crucial element, and one that the administration could have some control over.
While money for HIV/AIDS programs has ballooned, assistance for agriculture, infrastructure and other democracy-building and governance projects has stagnated, if not actually decreased. In addition, Dunn said, fewer and fewer African countries have been targeted for aid. He called for more universal assistance throughout the continent. And Lee emphasized the need to revisit trade agreements with African nations to make them more equitable.
The question of U.S. military intervention in Africa on human rights grounds is fraught with controversy. Wolpe argued that, under an Obama administration, the possibility of the U.S. intervening in places like Darfur and the Congo is back on the table. He and Dunn insisted that for some problems, strong military action is the only solution.
But they were also both confident that the Obama administration would beef up diplomatic efforts on the continent. Wolpe advocated a new model of conflict resolution that begins with the notion that places like Darfur are divided societies, and that the first step toward rebuilding them has to be directly engaging key leaders on both sides and bringing them together to find common ground. He expressed hope that the Obama administration would embrace this new model and optimism that the president-elect will devote more attention to resolving some of these "unresolvable conflicts."
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